Employing unique, robust methodology, it goes beyond the boundaries of the traditional “trend analysis” and fertilizer demand forecasting techniques currently being employed worldwide.
The report is the culmination of two years of rigorous and complex primary research based on a robust methodology going way beyond the boundaries of the traditional “trend analysis” and fertilizer demand forecasting techniques currently being employed worldwide.
Fertilizer demand is forecast to 2030 by macro nutrient (N, P, and K), crop (all major grains, oilseeds, sugar, fibre, pulses, and fruits and vegetables) and major producing country/region.
Integer and LMC combine data and analysis for the drivers of demand, how these have changed and will continue to change in the future. We cover
| Fertilizer: |
Crop: |
For the following countries/regions: |
- Efficiency/Waste
- Application rates
- Production
- Nutrient employed
- Technology
|
- Yield
- Crop type
- Growth area
- Technology
|
- Argentina
- Australia
- Brazil
- Canada
- China
- EU-27
- India
- Indonesia
|
- Malaysia
- Pakistan
- Russia
- USA
- Rest of World
- Plus a global overview
|
Accurate forecasting of fertilizer demand is extremely important. It is very topical with food security and demand-driven prices increasingly influential as key business drivers. Weaknesses in existing trend analysis calculation techniques make this report a must have for the players involved.
Forecast Methodology
Integer’s forecast model takes as its starting point the calculation of application rates by crop by country/region. We assess under and over application of nutrients based on theoretical uptake rates taken from FAO and IFA Fertilizer Use Manual as well as optimum application rates by fertilizer efficient countries/regions. Our application rate forecast also includes additional influencing factors such as policies and farming structure. We analyse the importance of the other two major fertilizer demand drivers, yield and area, through several scenarios. This leads us to our final fertilizer forecast by nutrient taking into account area, yield and changes in application rates.
LMC’s forecasts of the growth in crop area are based on LMC’s integrated analysis of global agriculture. This determines which crops will be planted, their location, volume and prices. The forecast model is composed of an interlinked set of markets (created in excel work books) that solve, through iteration, for the area sown by country and crop. The model starts with the demand for crops, determines its influence on the world price and then calculates the area taken into production by country and the crop choice within each country.