Corn, first planted from the sixteenth century in China and now one of the three major grain crops in China, has witnessed fast growth in the past six decades. China’s corn planting area is projected to continue expanding in the coming years, mainly driven by the robust demand from feed and industrial sectors, relatively high planting profit and strong policy support.
Climate change is one of the major factors influencing China’s corn planting. Among all the natural disasters that affect corn planting, the impact of drought is considered the most significant. Under the global warming and depravation of China's ecological environment, drought occurrence in China is estimated to be on an uptrend in the future.
In China, drought usually occurs unevenly in different regions, seasons and years, while corn's planting area is sprawling irregularly during the past years. Accordingly, the overlapping or staggering of drought occurrence with corn planting by geographic distribution and seasonal distribution aggravates the impact of drought on corn yield.
In order to figure out the impact of drought on corn yield and forecast the corn planting in China, CCM carries out this research, namely Influence of Drought on Corn Yield in China, through the following aspects:
? Corn planting history in China from 1949 to 2012, including: changes of corn planting, planting area, unit yield, output and summarization of each decade;
? Geographic distribution of corn planting from 1978 to 2011, such as: the division of corn planting area, the top planting areas and their share changes;
? Geographic distribution of drought area in China
? The influence of drought on corn yield, reflected in: comparison of geographic and seasonal distribution of drought with that of corn planting, correlation analysis between these two factors in China and in the top eight corn planting regions;
? Local governments and farmers’ reaction to drought
? Change and forecast of corn planting under the climate change
1 Executive summary 1
2 Corn planting in China 3
2.1 Development of corn planting, 1949-2012 3
2.2 Geographic distribution of corn planting 9
3 Geographic distribution of drought area 17
4 Influence of drought on corn yield 21
5 Reaction of local governments and farmers towards drought 31
6 Change and forecast of corn planting under climate change 34
LIST OF TABLES
Table 2.2-1 Six different corn planting areas in China
Table 2.2-2 Planting area, yield and output of corn in major provinces of China, 2012
Table 2.2-3 Share changes of top eight corn planting provinces in China by planting area-1949, 1978, 2007 and 2012
Table 4-1 Seasonal distribution of drought in China's major corn planting areas
Table 4-2 Correlation between drought and corn unit yield in China, 1990-2011
Table 5-1 Irrigated areas of China's main corn planting provinces, 2011, '000 ha
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1-1 World corn output share by region, 2012
Figure 2.1-2 Changes of corn planting area, unit yield and output in China, 1949-2012
Figure 2.1-3 Planting area and output changes of major grain crops in China, 1949-2012
Figure 2.1-4 China's corn planting area change over the past six decades
Figure 2.1-5 China's corn output change over the past six decades
Figure 2.1-6 China's corn unit yield change over the past six decades
Figure 2.2-1 China corn planting area segmentation
Figure 2.2-2 Geographic distribution of corn planting in China, 2011
Figure 2.2-3 Geographic distribution of soybean planting in China, 2011
Figure 2.2-4 Distribution of corn and soybean planting area by share in China, 2011
Figure 2.2-5 Planting area changes of corn and soybean in China, 1949-2011
Figure 2.2-6 Corn planting area change in major provinces of China, 1949-2011
Figure 2.2-7 Soybean planting area change in major provinces of China, 1949-2011
Figure 2.2-8 Share of corn planting areas in total planting areas of corn and soybean in China, 2008-2011
Figure 3-1 Geographic distribution of annual precipitation in China
Figure 3-2 Distribution of humid and acid areas in China
Figure 3-3 Affected area by natural disasters in China, 1990-2011, '000 ha
Figure 3-4 Seasonal and geographic distribution of drought in China
Figure 3-5 Geographic distribution of drought in China by average affected area
Figure 4-1 Drought affected area in China's major corn planting provinces
Figure 4-2 Growth periods of Spring corn and Summer corn in China
Figure 4-3 Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in China, 1990-2011
Figure 4-4 Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Heilongjiang, 1990-2011
Figure 4-5 Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Jilin, 1990-2011
Figure 4-6 Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Henan, 1990-2011
Figure 4-7 Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Hebei, 1990-2011
Figure 4-8 Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Shandong, 1990-2011
Figure 4-9 Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Inner Mongolia, 1990-2011
Figure 4-10 Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Liaoning, 1990-2011
Figure 4-11 Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Shanxi, 1990-2011
Figure 4-12 Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Yunnan, 1990-2011
Figure 4-13 Changes of drought affected areas, corn yield and output in Sichuan, 1990-2011
Figure 5-1 Irrigated area changes in China, 1990-2011
Figure 6-1 Drought areas of China's eight major corn planting areas, 1990~2011, '000 ha
Figure 6-2 Drought areas of China's four major corn planting areas in northeastern China, 1990~2011, '000 ha
Figure 6-3 Drought areas of China's four major corn planting provinces in North China, 1990~2011, '000 ha
Figure 6-4 Flood areas of China's eight major corn planting provinces, 1990~2011, '000 ha
Figure 6-5 Flood areas of China's four major corn planting areas in northeastern China, 1990~2011, '000 ha
Figure 6-6 Flood areas of China's four major corn planting provinces in North China, 1990~2011, '000 ha